The model has never seen these five people. It has twenty-one series of everyone else, and nothing at all on them. Each week, as episodes air, it will update its beliefs in public – predictions posted before the next episode, kept forever, right or wrong.
Watch it learn.
The cast five unknowns, formally speaking
Title chances before a single task
Five contestants, zero evidence: 20% each is the only honest number. Every week from here, these bars move.
The probability river title chances over the season
Each contestant's title probability, week by week. Pre-season it is a flat delta at 20%; by the finale it will be the definitive chart of the season. how?
The ledger every prediction, timestamped, unedited
The model has twenty-one series of history and nothing at all on these five. Early numbers lean on the scoreboard; as tasks pile up, it learns who they are. Watching that happen is the point. Methods.