The model has never seen these five people. It has twenty-one full series of everyone else, and only a handful of tasks on them. Each week, as episodes air, it will update its beliefs in public – predictions posted before the next episode, kept forever, right or wrong.

Watch it learn.

The Series 22 cast
Series 22 promo image · courtesy of Taskmaster

The cast five unknowns, formally speaking

Title chances before a single task

Five contestants, zero evidence: 20% each is the only honest number. Every week from here, these bars move.

The probability river title chances over the season

Each contestant's title probability, week by week. Pre-season it is a flat line at 20%; by the finale it will be the definitive chart of the season. how?

The ledger every prediction, timestamped, unedited

The model has twenty-one series of history and nothing at all on these five. Early numbers lean on the scoreboard; as tasks pile up, it learns who they are. Watching that happen is the point. Methods.